NBA Playoff Picks for 4/21

I unfortunately jinxed myself yesterday by posting my COVERS.COM streak. The first period of the CAPS/RANGERS game went as planned with a 0-0 score after 1. However, thanks to 2 goals occurring less than 10 seconds apart in the second, and the CAPS deciding to score 3 in the 3rd, the streak is no more.

My picks for tonight’s NBA Playoffs are as follows:

champs311 picks DAL@POR, POR u186 and says: Under is 19-7 in Mavericks last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Under is 8-1-1 in Mavericks last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 9-3 in Trail Blazers last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 18-8 in Trail Blazers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. (100)

champs311 picks DAL@POR, DAL +5.5 and says: Mavericks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Mavericks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog. Mavericks are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite. (200)

champs311 picks MIA@PHI, PHI u186 and says: Under is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 playoff games as an underdog. Under is 12-4 in 76ers last 16 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Under is 18-7-1 in Heat last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Under is 16-5 in Heat last 21 games following a S.U. win (100)

champs311 picks MIA@PHI, MIA -4.5 and says: Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Heat are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. # # 76ers are 8-27-3 ATS in their last 38 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. 76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. (200)

champs311 picks CHI@IND, CHI o189 and says: Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 games as a road favorite. Over is 15-5-1 in Pacers last 21 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Over is 33-16-2 in Pacers last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. (100)

champs311 picks CHI@IND, CHI -4.5 and says: Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Bulls are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games following a ATS loss. Bulls are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pacers are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest. (200)

My Statistics
Sport	Overall Record	Overall Record %	Rating Points	Last 20	ATS	O/U
NBA	96-74	56%	6400	9-11	49-38	47-36

NBA Playoff Picks 4/20

04-20-11	NBA	DEN at OKC	DEN +4.5	200	0.00	Nuggets are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.
04-20-11	NBA	DEN at OKC	DEN o206	100	0.00	Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.
04-20-11	NBA	MEM at SAN	MEM +8.5	100	0.00	Grizzlies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. Grizzlies are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games overall. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
04-20-11	NBA	MEM at SAN	MEM o196	200	0.00	Over is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in San Antonio.
04-20-11	NBA	NOH at LAL	NOH +11.5	200	0.00	Hornets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Underdog is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Hornets are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles.
04-20-11	NBA	NOH at LAL	LAL u187.5	100	0.00	Under is 12-3 in Lakers last 15 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Under is 29-12 in Hornets last 41 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Lucky #13

Switching gears for this post with my BIG PICK OF THE NIGHT.

Besides making picks on the NBA, I watch all the lines and the ones that stick out I pick. COVERS.COM just like PROVEN PLAYS allows you to pick sports games and track your percentages. The thing I like about COVERS is that you can join contests as well and win prizes based on your performance. For instance, they have a contest called Streak Survivor, where you pick a spread or point total from a particular list of games. The goal is to see how many picks in a row you can achieve without getting one wrong. If you happen to miss a pick then you just start back at 0 and continue your streak again. AND its FREE!

Need more incentive to join other than it’s free?

Well if you can get….

9 wins in a row gets you a COVERS hat.

13 wins gets you a COVERS Sweatshirt.

Looking for cash instead?

17 wins in a row equals $1,000

21 wins in a row equals $25,000

25 wins in a row equals $100,000

Unfortunately the odds are not in our favor of taking home the cash:

(Based on a 50% chance of making the correct pick)

9 wins in a row = 1 in 512

13 wins in a row = 1 in 8,192

17 wins in a row = 1 in 131,072

21 wins in a row = 1 in 2,097,152

25 wins in a row = 1 in 33,554,432

But that is what gambling is all about taking a chance and letting it ride.

Thank you got what it takes to take home the cash?

You can join here if you like:

http://contests.covers.com/SportsContests/survivor/index.aspx

My SN: Champs311

I am currently riding a 12 game win streak. Hopefully #13 tonight.

 

My pick for tonight is the UNDER in the CAPS/RANGERS game tonight.

Trends I like in this game

Under is 49-13-2 in Capitals last 64 overall

Under is 16-5 in Capitals last 21 games playing on 2 days rest

Under is 19-6-1 in Capitals last 26 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

Under is 46-18-4 in Rangers last 68 games as an underdog

Under is 52-24-7 in Rangers last 83 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game

Under is 47-22-5 in Rangers last 74 games following a win.

Odds I pick this game correctly are 1 in 8,192.

Wish me luck!

NBA Playoff Picks - April 18th

Yesterday I didn't feel so hot about my picks and looks like my intuition was correct (1-5).

However that is behind us. If you remember back when I went 14-2, I followed that up with a 1-5 performance. But what did I do on my next stretch? 6-2! I look to bounce back tonight as well. I feel very good about all my picks especially the spread in the CHI/IND game (hint the 500 point rating).

Eastern Conference Game 2

Philadelphia vs. Miami - TIP-OFF 7PM

Miami leads series 1-0

previous game MIA 97-89

champs311 picks PHI@MIA, PHI +9.5 and says: PHI is 5-1 ATS last 6 as the playoff underdog. PHI is 24-11-1 ATS last 36 playing on 1 days rest. MIA is 4-11 ATS last 15 when playing at home and favored between 5 and 11. MIA is 1-6 ATS last 7 Conference Quarterfinal Games. (200)

champs311 picks PHI@MIA, MIA u189 and says: UNDER is 5-0 last 5 when PHI was the playoff dog. UNDER is 6-0 last 6 for PHI following a straight up loss. UNDER is 5-0 last 5 for MIA following a straight up win. UNDER is 14-5-1 last 20 when MIA faces a team with a losing record. (200)

My trends for PHI and MIA:

Team	Overall	Points	ATS	Over/Under
Miami	9-1	1500	4-0	5-1
Philadelphia	8-3	600	5-1	3-2
Total	17-4	2100	9-1	8-3

Eastern Conference Game 2

Indiana vs. Chicago - TIP-OFF 9:30PM

Chicago leads series 1-0

previous game CHI 104-99

champs311 picks IND@CHI, IND +12 and says: IND is 11-1 ATS last 12 as the underdog by more than 11 points. IND is 17-8 on 1 day of rest. CHI is 0-4 ATS last 11 when favored by 11 or more. BEST STAT OF THE NIGHT: The referees for the game tonight are a combined 21-7 ATS when going with the road dog of more than 10 points. (500)

champs311 picks IND@CHI, CHI u193 and says: UNDER is 8-3 last 11 when IND was the dog by more than 11. UNDER is 10-4 last 14 when CHI allowed 100 or more in their previous game. (200)

My trends for IND and CHI:

Team	Overall	Points	ATS	Over/Under
Chicago	6-6	0	2-5	4-1
Indiana	4-4	-100	3-2	1-2
Total	10-10	-100	5-7	5-3

http://provenplays.com/PublicProfile.aspx?Profile=champs311

Lets start this week off with a BANG!

NBA Playoff Picks Part 2 April 17th

Great start to the playoffs yesterday going 6-2. I hit on all my O/U picks (4-0, +500 points). Here is how I stack up: OVERALL 88-64 (58%) RATINGS POINTS +6600 LAST 20: 13-7 (65%) ATS - 45-33 (58%) O/U – 43-31 (58%) (Currently on a streak of 5 wins in a row) Here are the results of the team’s that are playing today and my records betting on them. San Antonio 6-7 (4-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U) Memphis 2-6 (0-4 ATS, 2-2 O/U) LA Lakers 16-12 (10-4 ATS, 6-8 O/U) New Orleans 5-0 (2-0 ATS, 3-0 O/U) New York 3-8 (2-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U) Boston 9-9 (6-2 ATS, 3-7 O/U) Denver 3-1 (2-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U) Oklahoma City 5-5 (3-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) Today’s Picks Western Conference Quarterfinal Game 1 1PM Tip SAN ANTONIO vs. MEMPHIS champs311 picks MEM@SAN, SAN u193.5 and says: UNDER is 4-1 in SAN games as the playoff favorite. UNDER is 7-3 when SAN favored between 5 and 11.UNDER is 5-0 when MEM opponent allowed 100 or more in previous game. (200) champs311 picks MEM@SAN, SAN -6.5 and says: SAN is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 playoff games they were favored between 5 and 11. MEM is 0-5 ATS last 5 playoff games as the underdog. MEM is 1-7 ATS last 8 playoff games they were underdogs between 5 and 11. (200) Western Conference Quarterfinal Game 1 3:30PM Tip LA LAKERS vs. NEW ORLEANS champs311 picks NOH@LAL, LAL -10 and says: NOH 0-8 ATS last 8 games when road underdog between 5 and 11. NOH 2-7 ATS last 9 playing against teams with a winning record. (100) champs311 picks NOH@LAL, NOH o182.5 and says: OVER is 8-2-1 last 11 when LA on 3 or more days of rest. OVER is 5-2 when LA is favored between 5 and 11. OVER is 5-1 for NOH when playing against an opponent with a home winning %. (100) Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Game 1 7PM Tip BOSTON VS. NEW YORK champs311 picks NYK@BOS, NYK +6 and says: NY is 20-6-1 last 27 as road underdog. BOS is 3-12 ATS last 15 playoff games they were favored between 5 and 11. (100) champs311 picks NYK@BOS, NYK o197 and says: OVER is 5-1 last 6 NY playoff games as the underdog. OVER is 5-0 last 5 NY games following a straight up loss. OVER is 5-0 last 5 games BOS playing on 3 days of rest. OVER is 8-1 last 9 games BOS favored between 5 and 11. (200) Western Conference Quarterfinal Game 1 9:30PM Tip OKLAHOMA CITY VS. DENVER champs311 picks DEN@OKC, OKC -5.5 and says: DEN is 0-4 ATS last 4 as the playoff underdog. DEN is 3-9 last 12 as road dog between 5 and 11. OKC is 40-19-1 last 60 games following a straight up loss. OKC 5-2 last 7 playoff games as the favorite. (200) champs311 picks DEN@OKC, OKC u199.5 and says: UNDER 9-1-2 last 12 road games for DEN. UNDER is 24-9-1 last 25 DEN games when underdog on the road. UNDER is 8-3 for OKC when playing on 3 days of rest. (100) (All tip-offs are based on EASTERN TIME ZONE) Good Luck and have a great Sunday!

NBA Playoff Picks - April 16th

The postseason begins today for the NBA. There weren't any games scheduled yesterday, which gave me some time to look into today's games.

Before you take a look at my picks below, check out my statistics on the regular season.

OVERALL 82-62 (57%)
RATINGS POINTS +6000
LAST 20: 13-7 (65%)
ATS - 43-31 (58%)
O/U - 39-31 (56%)

Thought I would provide how I did for each team that is playing today. I will provide the rest of the teams with my picks tomorrow.

Chicago 4-6 (1-5 ATS, 3-1 O/U)
Indiana 2-4 (2-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U)
Miami 7-1 (3-0 ATS, 4-1 O/U)
Philly 6-3 (4-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U)
Orlando 7-0 (4-0 ATS, 3-0 O/U)
Atlanta 3-1 (2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U)
Dallas 11-2 (7-0 ATS, 4-2 O/U)
Portland 4-9 (3-4 ATS, 1-5 O/U)

Now to the picks:


Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Game 1

1PM Tip

CHICAGO vs. INDIANA

champs311 picks IND@CHI, IND +11.5 and says: IND is 9-1 ATS last 10 when playing on the road and as the underdog. IND is 4-1 ATS last 5 following a loss of more than 10 points. CHI is 0-4-1 ATS last 5 playoff games as the favorite. (200)

champs311 picks IND@CHI, IND o187.5 and says: OVER is 6-0 last 6 games when IND scored less than 75 in their previous game. OVER is 8-2 when IND is playing on 2 days of rest. OVER is 7-3 last 10 playoff games when CHI is the favorite. (100)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Game 1

3:30PM Tip

MIAMI vs. PHILLY

champs311 picks PHI@MIA, PHI +10.5 and says: PHIL is 4-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog in the playoffs. MIA 4-10 ATS last 14 games as the home favorite between 5 and 11 points. (100)

champs311 picks PHI@MIA, MIA u190 and says: UNDER is 11-5-1 last 17 meetings. UNDER is 9-3 last 12 playoff games for PHIL where they were an underdog between 5 and 11 points. (200)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Game 1

7PM Tip

ORLANDO vs. ATLANTA

champs311 picks ATL@ORL, ORL -8.5 and says: ORL is 15-5-1 ATS after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. ATL is 3-12-1 ATS last 16 playoff games as the underdog. (100)

champs311 picks ATL@ORL, ATL o179.5 and says: OVER is 6-1 last 7 when ORL allowed less than 75 in their previous game. Every statistic I see has this game going UNDER. Vegas knows this and made the number a low one. (100)

Western Conference Quarterfinal Game 1

9:30PM Tip

DALLAS vs. PORTLAND

champs311 picks POR@DAL, POR +5 and says: DAL is 1-4 ATS last 5 playing on 2 days of rest. POR is 10-4 ATS last 14 playoff games as the underdog. POR is 6-2 ATS last 8 overall games as the underdog. (100)

champs311 picks POR@DAL, DAL u186.5 and says: UNDER is 7-2 last 9 playoff games that POR was the underdog. UNDER is 8-3-1 last 12 games when Dallas was the favorite. (100)

(All tip-offs are based on EASTERN TIME ZONE)

Update April 12th NBA Picks

I thought after the big Tuesday we had that last night probably would be a draw back and indeed it was.

Chicago vs. New York

PICK – NY +7.5 and Under 204

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041218

Outcome:

It was tight all the way through until the 3^rd quarter. The BULLS used a 32-18 run in the 3^rd to seize the lead and able to earn the 103-90 victory.

I thought we would see more of a game like we did in the 2^nd half than the first last night. 1^st half contributed to 107 of the total 193 points. Luckily, for us we had the line at 204.

ATS – LOSS = -200 points

O/U – WIN = +100 points

Memphis vs. Portland

PICK – MEM +5.5 and Under 189.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041222

Outcome:

Portland was able to turn a halftime deadlock at 45 to a 102-89 victory and secure the #6 seed for the Western Conference Playoffs.

Always tough when you lose by less than 5 points. We needed more like the 2^nd quarter gave us (20-18) rather than scores like the 1^st and 4^th quarter (27-25) and (28-23).

ATS – LOSS = -200 points

O/U – LOSS = -100 points

San Antonio vs. LA Lakers

Pick – SA +7 and Under 194.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2011041213

Outcome:

The LAKERS couldn’t continue its losing streak. And it was hauled last night. After another TIE game at halftime the LAKERS were able to take the 3^rd quarter (25-19) and hold off SA in the 4^th for the win.

These are the games that make me think the NBA is just to fickle of a game to bet on. The 1^st half total was 90 (45-45), well below the projected 194 total score. Even the 3^rd quarter brought us more of the same (25-19 or 44 points). However, then you see the 4^th quarter score (32-29). The UNDER had a 60 point barrier going into the 4^th quarter and was happens? They score 61. Unbelievable. Bad beat on that one.

ATS – LOSS = -100 points

O/U – LOSS = -100 points.

Brings my stats to:

NBA overall 81-62 (57%)

NBA overall points +5,500

NBA last 20: 13-7 (65%)

NBA ATS 43-31 (58%)

NBA O/U 38-31 (55%)

The NBA 2011 Regular Season comes to an end tonight with 15 games on the schedule. Most games feature teams that have already clinched playoff spots against teams that have been knocked out of the playoff race for quite some time. All in all this is just hard to pick because some teams will come to play and some won't. Will look into what is on the NBA plate tonight and see if there is anything to be had.