Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Familiar Territory

Hello once again. Sorry for the recent lapse in my blog posting. It's not for my lack of enthusiasm for stats or sports, but rather the incredible amount of time and energy that is spent on other aspects of my life. After looking at the recent stats on my blog I couldn't believe the response I was getting from my posts. It stated that I had nearly 40 views for all of my posts and that helps to motivate me to continue to produce posts.

Anyways, back to posting. A little background information into my current job will help bring prospective to why this post is relevant. I currently work for a Golf Retailer in the Northern Virginia area.

The main thing that a lot of people have heard or read about in the golf world is custom fitting. Believe it or not, you can actually get anything from your clubs to the golf ball you play can be custom fit to help improve your game. With the help of golf simulators and retailers around the world, anyone and everyone who is looking to make a difference in their game should consider a custom fitting.

As in everything that is in the world, there are positives and negatives that come along with custom fitting. The myth that a lot of people think is going to occur when they visit a shop is that a custom fitting will determine what clubs he or she needs. Unfortunately, the fact is that a custom fitting will help to determine the characteristics of a club that one would need, but not the exact set of clubs.

For instance, a fitting could help with determining a proper length club for a player; however, a fitting would not tell you that the new Taylormade Burner 2.0 irons would benefit your game more than the Callaway X-24 or Ping G15 irons. See the difference?

To give you a glimpse into what I think is the most important fitting, I will give an overview of a custom iron fitting. Lets say a customer came into the store tomorrow, this would be the exact way I would provide service to the customer. First, I would need the customer to either already have a set of irons or have a new set of clubs in mind that they would like to purchase and have custom fitted.

Don't get me wrong, buying golf clubs is an important investment that no one should take lightly and I strongly encourage any golfer to try the clubs before they buy them. Every manufacturer makes a great set of clubs. That is the truth.

What if the customer has no clue what they need, or they have had the same clubs for 20 years and are in need of an upgrade? I am able to determine what would be the best option to improve their game. A couple of basic questions I ask to find out which way we should go are:
- What do you generally shoot for 9 holes or 18?
- Do you carry a handicap?
- What kind of clubs do you have now?

These questions help to give me an idea of the skill level that you have and what kind of set would be the most beneficial to you. Every manufacturer has generally 3 skill levels for its players.

1. A high handicap set (ultra game improvement) for the player that shoots in the 90s and higher. I would say that 60 percent of all golfers will fit into this group.

2. A mid handicap set (game improvement) for the player that shoots in the 80s and 90s. About 30 percent of all players.

3. A low handicap set (game enhancement) for the player that shoots in the 80s and lower. 10 percent of all players.

An example would be:
Callaway
- Diablo Edge is ultra game improvement
- X Series is game improvement
- X Forged is game enhancement

Taylormade
- Burner Superlaunch is ultra game improvement
- Burner 2.0 is game improvement
- R9 is game enhancement

To give you an idea, 90 percent of all golfers cannot break 90. I currently carry a 4.2 handicap and have been playing since I was 7 years old, I am now 24. It took me about 10 years just to break 100. I would say 5 years to constantly shoot in the 80s and for the past 2 years I have been able to shoot in the 70s. I say this in respect to finding the right set of clubs for any customer. The worst thing that can happen is a customer is not upfront with their ability and I recommend the wrong set of clubs. I am not here to judge you and your ability, just to help improve your game.


To help find the best particular set of clubs for you, you should do a couple of things first before making a decision.

1- Take time to do some research. Look at the different websites or go into a store that has a wide selection of clubs that you can swing and look at to find the one that best suits your eye.


2- Narrow your search down. The one thing that I do not like to do is to take every single club available in a particular handicap and have them hit 50 balls. By the time you get to the fifth club will be asking more questions than you will have answered. If you can trim it down to 2 or 3 sets (maybe by price, look, anything) the decision will be easier, I promise.


3- Ask for help. Any employee that works in the golf industry loves their job. They get to talk about golf all day and what's not to love about that. If I had to guess I would say 90 percent of golf employees play golf and have more in common with you then you might expect.

Above is the hardest part in the fitting process and if you have noticed I have not even mentioned anything about a custom fitting. The actual fitting process should only take a maximum of 20 minutes, if it's done properly. I look for 4 things when I do a fitting.

1. Type of shaft. Depending on swing speed and other characteristics I can determine if graphite or steel would be better and what flex would be best. This is the easiest part of the fitting because Mizuno has come up with a Shaft Optimizer that will calculate all of these variables from a couple of swings by the golfer.

2. Length. A shocking fact that a lot of people are not aware of is that the only difference between a ladies set of clubs and a men's set in length is 1/2 inch. Yes, the weight is different, but length is only 1/2 inch. The men's standard length is 5'6 to 6'1. A pretty wide range and the reason being that manufacturers want the average joe to be able to purchase a set of clubs without having to wait a month to receive them. Ladies' length in contrast is  5'0 to 5'6. It's not surprising for a lady to be fitted into men's clubs because of their height.

A fitting however is not solely based on height. It is also determined by where the golfer is hitting the golf ball on the club face. For instance, if golfer is hitting the majority of their shots to the inside of the face they probably have a club that is too long for them. In contrast, if they hit on the outside of the face (also known as the toe) then the club is too short. However, the way a golfer hits the ball can either be caused by height or a swing flaw. A fitter would be able to provide assistance into what would be the best course of action.

3. Lie Angle. The length is based on where you are hitting on the club face; however, the lie angle refers to where the bottom of the club (sole) strikes the ground. To determine if a lie ajustment is needed I only need a couple more swings from the player. If the player strikes the ground with the toe of the club then a more upright club is needed. This is correct for 80 percent of golfers (80 percent of golfers slice for this very reason). The other 20 percent hit the ball towards the heel of the club and a flatter lie angle would be recommended. How much of a adjustment? Well, that depends on the severity of where the club hits the ground. Usually, the most a club can be bent is 4 degrees (1 degree is the equivalent of 2 dollar bills put together). So, when we are talking about 4 degrees it is not a lot.

4. Grip Size. The last thing that I take in account in a fitting for irons is grip size. I tell golfers that this test has to deal primarily with the feel of the club. If a grip feels too big then it probably is, and same way for being too small. There are different size grips out there from ladies to men's standard to oversize and the fitting will help to determine which would be best for you.

I apologize for the length of this post. If you have read the full post then either you are a golf fanatic like myself and are intrigued by the four letter word we call "golf" or needed to past time while waiting for your metro stop on your way to work. Either way, I am glad I was able to help.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Time to end the Curse!

First off I have to acknowledge what a great job ESPN did on the 30 for 30 film series. If you haven't seen or heard of this, ESPN has made documentaries on certain events in sports throughout the years. They have covered anything from Michael Jordan's adventure into minor league baseball, boxing fight between Muhammad Ali and Larry Homes, Tim Richmond (a NASCAR racer who won seven times on the circuit, but lost his life to AIDS) and many more. Their most recent film chronicles the 2004 American League Championship Series between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Film was titled, "Four Days in October." Definitely was one of those moments where you know exactly where you were when the Sox were able to turn around a 0-3 deficit to win four games in a row on their way to becoming World Champions.


So far my posts have circled around a key play or events that happened within a particular game. On this Saturday, I am going to switch gears. My first post on a Saturday has to feature what Saturday's around the world are known for College Football. For anyone that knows me, my patronage grows around The Florida State Seminoles. I promise to not be to bias on this post, but give a perspective as not only a fan, but as a statistician.

The NOLES welcome their in-state rival the Miami Hurricanes. From the adventures of a wide left and four wide rights to national title aspirations on line. The only thing you know when these two schools collide is it's going to be filled with passion, hard hitting and a very tight battle. Don't believe me look at this little fact. Since 2000, every game in the series except one (2001) has been decided by eight points or less (91%) and out of those eleven games, six have been decided by three or less.

I have to admit that lately the series has been one sided with the CANES winning eight out of past eleven (73%). Overall, the CANES lead the series 31-23. This game tonight is back to where the rivalry should be with both teams back in the Top 25 for the first time since 2006.

Tonight the oddsmakers are giving the home team, Miami, a slight favorite at 6.5 points. Safe to say that Vegas doesn't like the way FSU played in their first road game of the season against #7 Oklahoma where they got slammed 47-17. However, FSU has been able to right the ship since and has outscored opponents 99-24 in their last three games. Miami, just like FSU, struggled on the road against a top-tier opponent, the Ohio State University, where the score didn't show how lopsided the game was with a 34-26 loss in the Shoe.

Even though in the last seven games the UNDER is 5-1-1. The FSU/Miami is always fast paced and doesn't lack offense. However, this year the game is all about the two defenses. FSU ranks #1 in sacks in the NCAA (5 per game), while Miami is right behind them at #2 (4.25 per game).

As for a prediction, it is only fair to go the statistics and trends:

Positive
- FSU is 5-1 ATS in last 6 overall
- FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as underdog between 3.5 and 10 points

- CANES are 4-1 ATS in last 5 as a favorite
- CANES are 6-2 ATS in last 8 games in October

Negative
- FSU is 2-6 ATS in last 8 following a Straight Up win
- FSU is 2-7-1 in last 10 following an ATS win

- CANES are 3-13 ATS in last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record
- CANES are 1-8 ATS in last 9 as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points

I have to say it looks pretty even. From a college football fan, I love the way FSU has been running the ball lately. That should open up the play-action pass and hopefully reveal a deep threat for the NOLES. Unfortunately, FSU doesn't have the play makers it needs at wide receiver. Reminds me a lot of the Chicago Bears in years past. Miami has a really good shot of winning this game if Jacoby Harris, quarterback for the Canes, doesn't turn the ball over. Harris was introduced into the rivarly early in his career and was able to handle the pressure, so I would assume he handles his business tonight. All in all I see this game once again coming down to the wire.

I would definitely take the points whether it was Miami or FSU. It happens to be FSU this year. 6.5 points is a lot specially in this series. Believe it or not, I see this game coming down to a last second field goal. By whom you say, well....

As for a Straight Up winner, I look at this stat:

- The underdog is 10-1 ATS in last 11 games.
- The road team is 4-0 Straight Up in the last 4 games.

I have to go with NOLES. NOT because I am a homer. BUT the series has been owned by the CANES. This rivarly is too tight to be one sided. In the past five games in the series, FSU has won three. The trend is turning and going to pull the series to 31-24 after a FSU win tonight. In addition, it is Jimbo Fisher's 40th Birthday today and karma has to be on the side of the NOLES. Time to put the Field Goal Curse to an end just like the Red Sox were able to finally take down the Curse of the Big Bambino.

GO NOLES!

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Who Knew?

Kids are back at school. The weather is turning from hot to cold and October is here. When you think of sports and October the first thing that should come to mind are the Major League Baseball Playoffs. So, it's only fitting that I start this post on the first day of the 2010 MLB Playoffs.

The first day of slated games featured a triple header. The Tampa Bay Rays played host to the Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds travelled to Philadelphia to play against the Phillies and the night cap featured the defending World Champions, New York Yankees, verses the Minnesota Twins.

The reason that all baseball fans love October showed itself early into the playoffs and produced something that hadn't happened in 54 years. The Phillies, National League East Division Champions, were playing against the National League Central Division Champions, Reds. Las Vegas and the public were betting on the Phillies to win and rather easily. In fact, the oddsmakers were picking the Phillies as a 1 to 2 favorite (-201 to be exact). In contrast, the other two games the favorites were given -133 odds (Rays over Rangers), and -149 odds (Yankees over Twins), respectively.

When it comes to statistics, it is all about how you want to spin the numbers in your favor. For instance, if you were trying to pick a winner for this game you might look at:

If you want the Reds to win:
- Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games
- Reds are 8-1 in last 9 games when Edinson Volquez pitches and Reds are the underdogs.


If you want the Phillies to win:
- Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 starts when Roy Halladay (the Game 1 starter for the Phillies) pitches and Phillies are favored to win
- Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starting pitcher (Halladay throws right-handed)

As you can see either one of those could make for a pretty convincing agruement.


The stats for the game totals on this game could make you think either one was possible, as well. The total runs for the game was set at 7.

- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams
- Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia between the two teams
- Under is 4-1 in Edinson Volquez's last 5 starts vs. National League East.

- Over is 4-0-1 in Roy Halladay's last 5 starts overall
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater.
- Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 during game 1 of a series.

What ended up happening was a tale of two pitchers. Edinson Volquez was only able to get 5 total outs before having to leave the game. Volquez gave up 4 runs (all earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks.

On the other hand, Roy Halladay was able to become just the second pitcher in MLB Postseason history to throw a no-hitter and first since 1956 (Don Larsen).

Halladay was superb all game long. Out of the 28 hitters that Halladay faced only 4 balls were hit out of the infield. Halladay earlier in the year against the Florida Marlins was able to record his first no-hitter of his career. The no-hitter today meant that Halladay became the fifth pitcher to throw two no-hitters in the same calendar year joining Nolan Ryan (1973), Virgil Trucks (1952), Allie Reynolds (1951) and Johnny Vander Meer (1938) as the others. In addition, Halladay became the first pitcher in MLB history to record a no-hitter in the postseason and regular season in the same season. Congratulations, Roy.

The best thing about sports is that the unexpected happen.  Statistics help us in an effort to predict what will happen next, but there is always that chance something out of the ordinary might just happen. We can thank Roy Halladay and the Phillies this time.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

A STATISTICAL ANOMALY

What a great way to start my blog with a statistical anomaly.

As I was starting my first post on this blog the Miami Dolphins were playing host to the New England Patriots in an American Football Conference Eastern Division or AFC East match-up. BETUS.COM states that, "N[ational] F[ootball] L[eague] betting generates more wagering dollars than any other sport in North America.." So it is only appropriate for my sports statistics blog to start with a feature on the National Football League.

(The odds-makers were giving the slightest of edges to the hometeam Dolphins as a 1.5 point favorite and setting the Total Points for the game at 48.5)

As a stats freak, I was just drooling over the statistic that came from this game. ESPN stated that we saw the 1st team in National Football League history to:
- score a touchdown by rushing
- score a touchdown by passing
- score a touchdown by interception return
- score a touchdown by kickoff return
- score a touchdown by a return of a blocked field goal

It all happened in the SAME game.

AND believe it or not, all of those things happened in the 2nd half alone.


The team was the New England Patriots. Congratulations.


Not to mention that the Patriots were down 7-6 at halftime. Who knew we would see 42 points after halftime, and 50% of the touchdowns in the 2nd half be produced by special teams (3 out of 6).

Another crazy stat for this game. Randy Moss, the standout wide receiver for the Patriots didn't even catch a pass all game long. According to ESPN, this is only the 5th time in Randy Moss' career he was unable to catch a pass in a game. You ask, what is the percentage that Randy Moss has at least one reception this game? 97.8 (184 out of 188 career games for Moss). Thus, the odds of Moss not have a reception in this game were 2.2%. Well, a 2.2% chance happened on October 4, 2010.

Who says miracles don't happen?

Maybe not so great statistics for those of you who play NFL Fantasy Football and own Randy Moss, but have no worries he should return to form next week. Below is what Moss does the week after not having a reception.

- vs. Tennessee in Week 7 in 2004
(was used mostly as a decoy, and did not has a single reception again)


- vs. Giants in Week 8 in 2004
(went to injured reserve after this game; however, returned in Week 11 to catch 4 passes for 40 yards and a touchdown)


- vs. San Diego in Week 5 in 2005
(next game caught 3 passes for 43 yards and a touchdown)


- vs. Kansas City in Week 10 in 2006
(next game caught 3 passes for 26 yards)

- vs. Miami in Week 4 in 2010
(TBD)


So, as the clock strikes 1am here in the East, I could not of planned to start a blog, and as the numbers state no one could have predicted these stats for the game.

By the way, the New England Patriots did win the game by a score of 41-14 and for a full recap you can visit:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/recap?gid=20101004015

I picked took the Patriots +1.5 and Over 48.5. 2-0 to start my blog. Another statistical anomaly, I promise.

(For those that are curious, I do keep track of my predictions on the spreads and also the Totals for most sports that I cover. If you would like to see how I fare or care to give it a try yourself, visit: provenplays.com. My profile is Champs311. Stop by and say Hello.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Let the Games Begin!

New Beginnings are a common theme all over the world. They happen every year, every month, every day, and even every second. You get to forget about the past and focus on the present. This occurs especially in sports. The grateful end to a dismal season or an abrupt end to a stellar postseason run.

I am starting this blog for a new beginning. This blog is that great offseason move you hear about every year that will either make or break a season, career, or even the player. Excitement is in the air and the unknown is what keeps us coming back for more.

My goal of this blog is to provide a little insight on the statistics side of sports and hopefully intrigue others at the same time. As one of my favorite sports movies, Fever Pitch, (others include Rudy, Tin Cup, Field of Dreams and Hoosiers) Jimmy Fallon states, "I like being part of something that's bigger than me, than I. It's good for your soul to invest in something you can't control". That's what sports is all about.

And with all that being said, Let the games begin!