First off I have to acknowledge what a great job ESPN did on the 30 for 30 film series. If you haven't seen or heard of this, ESPN has made documentaries on certain events in sports throughout the years. They have covered anything from Michael Jordan's adventure into minor league baseball, boxing fight between Muhammad Ali and Larry Homes, Tim Richmond (a NASCAR racer who won seven times on the circuit, but lost his life to AIDS) and many more. Their most recent film chronicles the 2004 American League Championship Series between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Film was titled, "Four Days in October." Definitely was one of those moments where you know exactly where you were when the Sox were able to turn around a 0-3 deficit to win four games in a row on their way to becoming World Champions.
So far my posts have circled around a key play or events that happened within a particular game. On this Saturday, I am going to switch gears. My first post on a Saturday has to feature what Saturday's around the world are known for College Football. For anyone that knows me, my patronage grows around The Florida State Seminoles. I promise to not be to bias on this post, but give a perspective as not only a fan, but as a statistician.
The NOLES welcome their in-state rival the Miami Hurricanes. From the adventures of a wide left and four wide rights to national title aspirations on line. The only thing you know when these two schools collide is it's going to be filled with passion, hard hitting and a very tight battle. Don't believe me look at this little fact. Since 2000, every game in the series except one (2001) has been decided by eight points or less (91%) and out of those eleven games, six have been decided by three or less.
I have to admit that lately the series has been one sided with the CANES winning eight out of past eleven (73%). Overall, the CANES lead the series 31-23. This game tonight is back to where the rivalry should be with both teams back in the Top 25 for the first time since 2006.
Tonight the oddsmakers are giving the home team, Miami, a slight favorite at 6.5 points. Safe to say that Vegas doesn't like the way FSU played in their first road game of the season against #7 Oklahoma where they got slammed 47-17. However, FSU has been able to right the ship since and has outscored opponents 99-24 in their last three games. Miami, just like FSU, struggled on the road against a top-tier opponent, the Ohio State University, where the score didn't show how lopsided the game was with a 34-26 loss in the Shoe.
Even though in the last seven games the UNDER is 5-1-1. The FSU/Miami is always fast paced and doesn't lack offense. However, this year the game is all about the two defenses. FSU ranks #1 in sacks in the NCAA (5 per game), while Miami is right behind them at #2 (4.25 per game).
As for a prediction, it is only fair to go the statistics and trends:
Positive
- FSU is 5-1 ATS in last 6 overall
- FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as underdog between 3.5 and 10 points
- CANES are 4-1 ATS in last 5 as a favorite
- CANES are 6-2 ATS in last 8 games in October
Negative
- FSU is 2-6 ATS in last 8 following a Straight Up win
- FSU is 2-7-1 in last 10 following an ATS win
- CANES are 3-13 ATS in last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record
- CANES are 1-8 ATS in last 9 as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points
I have to say it looks pretty even. From a college football fan, I love the way FSU has been running the ball lately. That should open up the play-action pass and hopefully reveal a deep threat for the NOLES. Unfortunately, FSU doesn't have the play makers it needs at wide receiver. Reminds me a lot of the Chicago Bears in years past. Miami has a really good shot of winning this game if Jacoby Harris, quarterback for the Canes, doesn't turn the ball over. Harris was introduced into the rivarly early in his career and was able to handle the pressure, so I would assume he handles his business tonight. All in all I see this game once again coming down to the wire.
I would definitely take the points whether it was Miami or FSU. It happens to be FSU this year. 6.5 points is a lot specially in this series. Believe it or not, I see this game coming down to a last second field goal. By whom you say, well....
As for a Straight Up winner, I look at this stat:
- The underdog is 10-1 ATS in last 11 games.
- The road team is 4-0 Straight Up in the last 4 games.
I have to go with NOLES. NOT because I am a homer. BUT the series has been owned by the CANES. This rivarly is too tight to be one sided. In the past five games in the series, FSU has won three. The trend is turning and going to pull the series to 31-24 after a FSU win tonight. In addition, it is Jimbo Fisher's 40th Birthday today and karma has to be on the side of the NOLES. Time to put the Field Goal Curse to an end just like the Red Sox were able to finally take down the Curse of the Big Bambino.
GO NOLES!
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