Who Knew?

Kids are back at school. The weather is turning from hot to cold and October is here. When you think of sports and October the first thing that should come to mind are the Major League Baseball Playoffs. So, it's only fitting that I start this post on the first day of the 2010 MLB Playoffs.

The first day of slated games featured a triple header. The Tampa Bay Rays played host to the Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds travelled to Philadelphia to play against the Phillies and the night cap featured the defending World Champions, New York Yankees, verses the Minnesota Twins.

The reason that all baseball fans love October showed itself early into the playoffs and produced something that hadn't happened in 54 years. The Phillies, National League East Division Champions, were playing against the National League Central Division Champions, Reds. Las Vegas and the public were betting on the Phillies to win and rather easily. In fact, the oddsmakers were picking the Phillies as a 1 to 2 favorite (-201 to be exact). In contrast, the other two games the favorites were given -133 odds (Rays over Rangers), and -149 odds (Yankees over Twins), respectively.

When it comes to statistics, it is all about how you want to spin the numbers in your favor. For instance, if you were trying to pick a winner for this game you might look at:

If you want the Reds to win:
- Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games
- Reds are 8-1 in last 9 games when Edinson Volquez pitches and Reds are the underdogs.


If you want the Phillies to win:
- Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 starts when Roy Halladay (the Game 1 starter for the Phillies) pitches and Phillies are favored to win
- Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starting pitcher (Halladay throws right-handed)

As you can see either one of those could make for a pretty convincing agruement.


The stats for the game totals on this game could make you think either one was possible, as well. The total runs for the game was set at 7.

- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams
- Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia between the two teams
- Under is 4-1 in Edinson Volquez's last 5 starts vs. National League East.

- Over is 4-0-1 in Roy Halladay's last 5 starts overall
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater.
- Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 during game 1 of a series.

What ended up happening was a tale of two pitchers. Edinson Volquez was only able to get 5 total outs before having to leave the game. Volquez gave up 4 runs (all earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks.

On the other hand, Roy Halladay was able to become just the second pitcher in MLB Postseason history to throw a no-hitter and first since 1956 (Don Larsen).

Halladay was superb all game long. Out of the 28 hitters that Halladay faced only 4 balls were hit out of the infield. Halladay earlier in the year against the Florida Marlins was able to record his first no-hitter of his career. The no-hitter today meant that Halladay became the fifth pitcher to throw two no-hitters in the same calendar year joining Nolan Ryan (1973), Virgil Trucks (1952), Allie Reynolds (1951) and Johnny Vander Meer (1938) as the others. In addition, Halladay became the first pitcher in MLB history to record a no-hitter in the postseason and regular season in the same season. Congratulations, Roy.

The best thing about sports is that the unexpected happen.  Statistics help us in an effort to predict what will happen next, but there is always that chance something out of the ordinary might just happen. We can thank Roy Halladay and the Phillies this time.