The Final Four

Then there was four! It has come down to this, the final weekend of college basketball. “The Final Four.” Every year we say that the final four teams are different and every story is different, but this year takes the cake. The 2010-2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament provided a statistic that only been since twice before in the history of the tournament. There isn’t a single #1 seed to be found in the Final Four. Actually, in one semifinal you have the largest seeding between two teams when you add the two together. (Butler #8 seed vs. Virginia Commonwealth a #11 seed) So, it’s only fitting for the tournament that starting with a stat that had never been seen before (Michigan winning a NCAAT game without attempting a free throw in a 30 point win over Tennessee in Round 1) to showcase the Final Four teams that only 2 out of 5.9 million brackets that were filled out to pick correctly. How do you like those odds?

No one truly in their right state of mind would have guessed that these four schools would make up the Final Four. Why do I say that? Well, just look at the odds that VEGAS placed on these teams before the season began.

2010-2011 NCAA College Basketball Future Odds to Win the Championship

Kentucky                                30-1                             risk 100 to win 3000

Connecticut                             75-1                             risk 100 to win 7500

Butler                                      50-1                             risk 100 to win 5000

Virginia Commonwealth         200-1                           risk 100 to win 20,000

The odds can be found here if you would like to see for yourself:

http://www.sportsbooklists.com/blog/ncaa-basketball/2010-ncaa-basketball-previews-predictions-103010/

Unfortunately, those odds have now diminished drastically (see below) since there is a 25% chance that each team could bring home the hardware (1 in 4). VEGAS is not putting all the same odds on each team, understandably; however, I could definitely see any of the remaining four teams hoisting the trophy Monday night.

2010-2011 NCAA College Basketball Current Odds to Win the Championship

(According to BETED.com)

Kentucky +115

Connecticut +200

Butler +330

VCU +480

The fight pans out this way. In one corner, you have the two traditional powerhouses, Kentucky and Connecticut, with the winner moving on to the Championship Game, Monday night. The polar opposite sits in the other corner. Two Cinderellas, Butler and Virginia Commonwealth, who both will be playing with house money with nothing to lose, but everything to gain. Some say the key will be if the powerhouses can save enough in the tank from the backyard bash that will occur in the National Semifinals to finish off the run come Monday. However, on the flip-side, this may not be Butler’s first rodeo; however, both VCU and Butler have gone to great lengths to get to this point. There is intrigue no matter where you look that is for sure.

Kentucky Wildcats
What the Wildcats lack in experience they combat with athleticism and talent. Being able to take down both the overall #1 seed, Ohio State, and following that up by knocking off #2 seed UNC was incredible in the way that they were able to attack both off the dribble. The NBA would be proud of these ‘Cats. If they are able to keep the focus off of freshman Terrance Jones and Brandon Knight and continue to feed off of Josh Harrellson’s breakout performance, Kentucky will be cutting down the nets in Houston.

The freshman tandem is talented, but like people say, “The problem with freshman, is that they are freshman.” The stage of the Final Four can make you (see Carmelo and Syracuse) or break you (see The Fab 5 of Michigan).

Connecticut Huskies

The one man band that was Kemba Walker has turned into a fine tuned machine that just keeps plowing through the NCAA Tournament field. I truly believe that a team can ride the hot hand of one player and that attracts great play from their teammates, but all it takes for the opposition to cash in is the off night from that one true star. Luckily for the Huskies is that they have a two-time national championship coach to rely on in Jim Calhoun. Not a bad safety blanket at all.

Calhoun can work his magic on the sidelines that is for sure. What he cannot due from the sidelines is control how the game will be played. If the front court of Connecticut get into a physical half court game and the fouls begin to add up, Connecticut cannot counteract that with depth. We talk about Kentucky being young; half of the Connecticut roster is filled with freshman (7 of the 14). Throw in the 2 other sophomores and 64% of the team is underclassmen.

Butler Bulldogs

Butler can make a statement that none of the other teams in the Final Four can make, they have recently been to this point and beyond before. (They lost to Duke in the Title game last year) The key components to that team are for the most part still intact for the exception of Gordon Hayward. Butler has played against pretty much every style you can think off throughout the season so they will be battle tested and ready to show off for the crowd in Houston.

The other teams in the Final Four can claim that Butler has been the luckiest team this year and maybe even in the history of the NCAAT. Just look at this round by round analysis. Second round they win at the buzzer against Old Dominion. Third round after a series of craziness and legit foul calls they upset #1 seed Pittsburgh. The Sweet 16 game against Wisconsin, the Badgers at one point were 1 for their last field goal attempts in the second half. The final evidence is their latest round where they had to go into overtime to take out #2 seed Florida. No one said it has to be pretty, and the Bulldogs have proven that.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams

Butler might have been the luckiest, but the RAMS from Richmond, Virginia have been the mightiest. The 4^th best team out of the CAA in the regular season has taken down a team from each of the following conferences: the ACC (Florida State in Sweet 16), Big East (Georgetown in 2^nd Round, Big 12 (Kansas in Elite 8), Big Ten (Purdue in the 3^rd Round) and PAC-10 (USC in the 1^st Round). If you look at them these include all but 1 power conference, SEC. However, if Kentucky beats UCONN on Saturday and VCU beats Butler then VCU has a chance to take them all down and that would mean becoming the NCAA Champion. The RAMS have done it convincingly as well beating all of the above opponents by an average of 12 points a game including a 10 point win over #1 seed Kansas in San Antonio. VCU all season has lived and died by their press and the 3 ball. So far both have been running at full steam.

When the brackets were announced VCU was among the last 4 to an invite into the NCAAT. They were chosen ahead of the likes of Virginia Tech and Colorado. However, VCU has proven that at least in a one and done tournament they belonged among the best 68 teams in the nation. What VCU has been able to do so far in the tournament is unprecedented, but doesn’t the well run dry after a while? I mean this will be their 6^th game of the NCAAT for them. Their longest winning streak of the season was 9 towards the end, and that only included 3 teams with a winning percentage over 50% for the entire year. If the RAMS are to keep the dream alive they will have to continue to control the tempo of the game and improve on a category they have been struggling with all tournament long, rebounding.

Your guess is as good as mine as to who wins it all this year. All the teams that are here are here for a reason. Some have been dominant, some have survived and advanced and some have defied logic. But that’s why they call it March Madness and come Monday, the true champion will once again rise from the chaos and can claim they are the best NCAA basketball team of the 2010-2011 College Basketball season.

#10 Florida State vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth – Analysis and Prediction

The final game on the Sweet 16 schedule I think will be the best game of the day and maybe even of the entire tournament. It includes #11 seed Virginia Commonwealth Rams against another double digit seed #10 Florida State. The winner of this match-up will move on to face the winner of the Kansas/Richmond game

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Nobody had these two teams getting this far in the tournament. In fact, for VCU most analysis didn’t even believe they should have even gotten an invitation to play in the Big Dance. While this FSU team that had to play without its star player, Chris Singleton, for the final 6 games of the season, has had its ups and downs (see games against Auburn, Duke, and Maryland, for evidence) throughout the season, but has put it all together when it has mattered most. As Mr. Terrell Owens would say, “Get your popcorn ready!”

Category 1 (see above)

Neither of these teams is skilled at the charity stripe. FSU is only 65% and VCU is a little higher at 68%. This should keep the game close thought, but also may play a key part in the end of game situations.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 2 (see above)

Rebounding is where FSU makes its money. FSU is one of the lengthiest teams in the NCAAT. FSU usually controls the glass against its competition with a +9 rebounding advantage (FSU 36, opp. 27). However, VCU is the opposite allowing the opposition to gain more rebounds than them (VCU 29, opp. 33).

EDGE – FSU.

Category 3 (see above)

Three Point shooting is where VCU has the advantage amongst these two teams. VCU converts on 40% of their 3 point shots and attempts 24/game. That’s a lot when you compare the other Sweet 16 teams. FSU is more likely to be called offensively challenged than an offensive juggernaut. However, they do hit on 35% of their 3 point shots, but attempt 5 fewer than VCU. The length of FSU has produced bad shooting nights for teams all season long with Notre Dame being the latest victim. I wouldn’t count on VCU making as many 3s as they have against their first 3 opponents; however, if they do we could see the RAMS move on.

EDGE – EVEN. VCU gets the edge offensively, FSU gets the edge defensively.

Category 4 (see above)

FSU was the best defensive team in the NCAA this year based on field goal percentage. They only allowed their opponents to shoot 33%, while offensively they were able to manage 45%. VCU shoots the ball at 44%, but so do their opponents. A key to this game will not only be if VCU can make shots from the outside, but also the tempo of the game. VCU on average attempts 9 more shots a game than FSU.

EDGE - FSU.

Category 5 (see above)

The most important statistical field for this game is right here. FSU is known to turn the ball over a lot and by a lot I mean over 20/game on some nights. There assist-to-turnover ratio is the worst of all Sweet 16 teams are 0.84. The bad side for FSU is that VCU implements a full court press for the majority of the game. If FSU can keep the turnovers down and put forth that lock down defense then no doubt about it FSU will be playing in the Elite 8. VCU on the other hand can handle the pressure as shown by their 1.55 assist-to-turnover ratio. Does the full court defense work? You bet it does and they have 3^rd highest assist-to-turnover ratio on defense from all teams in the Sweet 16, 0.78. Only Duke (0.72) and San Diego State (0.74) are better; unfortunately for VCU both of those teams lost yesterday.

EDGE - VCU.

Trends to watch

FSU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.

VCU is 7-0 ATS in NCAAT games as an underdog.

Prediction

Line – FSU – 4.5

Public 59% on VCU.

This one is hard for me because I live in Richmond, Virginia and I went to VCU. However, I bleed Garnet and Gold. So, I will let the stats produce my winner. The two questions you have to ask are: Can FSU handle the ball against the VCU press and Can VCU shoot a high percentage against the defense and length of FSU? I like the chances of FSU not turning the ball over against the VCU press more than I think VCU can make shots against the length of FSU. I don’t like the 2-6 record FSU has as a favorite, but I think they buck that trend and will play against Kansas on Sunday with the victor heading to Houston for the Final Four.

#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Kentucky – Analysis and Prediction

The Friday nightcap kicks off with overall #1 seed The Ohio State University from the East Region facing against the #4 seed Kentucky Wildcats.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Ohio State has shown why it is the overall #1 seed in the NCAAT, at least to this point. The Buckeyes beat their second and third round opponents by scores of 75-46 and 99-68, respectively. In contrast, no one is really talking about the kids from Kentucky. They slipped by Princeton by 2 and beat West Virginia from the Big East by 7. Not all that impressive by any means, but they, just like Ohio State, are just one win away from the Elite 8.

Category 1 (see above)

OSU and Kentucky, just like most of the match-ups in the Sweet 16, shoot about the same percentage from the free throw line. The difference between the two in this case is that OSU attempts 10 more than the opposition. However, a crazy stat to see is that OSU opponents actually connect on 90% of their free throw attempts (9 of 10 on average per game.) Kentucky isn’t too bad itself sporting a +6 margin.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 2 (see above)

OSU and Kentucky average the same amount of rebounds per game.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 3 (see above)

OSU has a very special talent nicknamed “Three-Bler”, real last name Diebler, who is the all-time leading 3 point shooter in the Big Ten. So it should come to no surprise that OSU connects on 45% from the land of 3. The better stat is that they hold their opponents to only 34%. Kentucky isn’t terrible at 35%, but just doesn’t compare to OSU. And both OSU and Kentucky shoot the same amount of 3s a game 15, which just goes to show you how good OSU is from 3.

EDGE – OSU.

Category 4 (see above)

So there must be a down side for OSU, right? Well, they actually hit on 49% overall. You don’t necessarily think of OSU being an offensive juggernaut, but they can do it all. Their defense carried them to holding LIU to only 45 total points. Their offense was rolling when they put up 99 on George Mason. Kentucky shoots at 44%, but so does their opponents, who average 41%.

 EDGE – OSU.

Category 5 (see above)

OSU is just a statistical giant. The assist-to-turnover category isn’t going to slow them down either. OSU has a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio and their defense only allows 0.85, a nice little 0.90 difference there. Kentucky holds a respectable +0.30 difference between their opponents; however, their offense only contributes to 1.18 of that.

EDGE – OSU.

Trends to watch

OSU is 9-2 ATS in last 11 after a straight up win of over 20 points.

OSU is 5-11 ATS in last 16 NCAAT games as a favorite.

KENTUCKY is 1-7 ATS in last 8 games after a straight up win.

KENTUCKY is 4-1 ATS in last 5 games as an underdog.

Prediction

Line – Ohio State -5.5

Public are 96% on OSU.

The only part of me that thinks that Kentucky has a chance in this game is the public. 96% of the public is on Ohio State. Las Vegas has got to be either loving or dreading that number. However, VEGAS has not really budged on the line keeping it around 6 points. I love that OSU has the edge in every category and would be alright if you were part of the 96% on OSU, but I just can’t do it. If the public was so smart then we would all be millionaires. I am taking the 6 points and riding KENTUCKY.

#1 Kansas vs. #12 Richmond – Analysis and Prediction

The second Friday game is one of the more intriguing games of the Sweet 16. It will be played in San Antonio, Texas, which not too far from where the Final Four will be held Houston. It displays #1 seed Kansas; a lot of people’s pick to win it all, versus Atlantic 10 Cinderella #12 seed Richmond.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Most people believe that this is the year Kansas lives up to its billing and gets to the Final Four and for good reason. They have had a rather easy road to get to this point, but did dispatch both Boston University and Illinois by an average of 16.5. In the other corner will be the first of two teams coming in from Richmond, Virginia, my hometown. The Spiders knocked out #3 seed Vanderbilt in the second round and coasted by fellow Cinderella and #13 seed Morehead State by 17. This is what March Madness brings us the classic battle between favorite and underdog, David and Goliath.

Category 1 (see above)

Kansas and Richmond shoot around the same percentage from the line (KU 69%, UR 67%), but the Jayhawks attempt 7 more FTs than their opponent (22 to 15) and 4 more than Richmond’s average (18).

EDGE – Kansas.

Category 2 (see above)

Kansas controls the glass when you compare them to their opponents. (KU 38/game, opp. 29/game)

Richmond is not going to out muscle Kansas on the boards, but they might have a chance to keep the numbers close. Spiders average 32 a game while allowing 31.

EDGE – KANSAS.

Category 3 (see above)

One reason I think Richmond might not be able to keep up Kansas tonight is this statistic right here. Both teams shoot exactly the same from 3 point range (37%) and attempt about the same number (KU 17, UR 18). Hard to pull off the upset if don’t perform above your competition.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 4 (see above)

Kansas gets the shots that it wants to take, thus they average over 50% field goal percentage from the floor. KU not only can put the ball in the hole, but its defense isn’t too shabby either, holding opponents to just 39%. Richmond also holds their opponents to 39%, but is not as efficient as the Jayhawks. The Spiders hit on average 42% of their field goals.

EDGE - KANSAS

Category 5 (see above)

What do you expect from a team that’s defense holds opponents to fewer than 40% shooting, a pretty good assist-to-turnover ratio on the defensive side. Kansas’ defense has a ratio of 0.84, while the offense carries a 1.31 assist-to-turnover-ratio. Richmond will without a doubt be careful with the basketball and the stats seem to think they will hold their own in that category, sporting a 1.41 ratio. Richmond takes care of the ball, and Kansas forces turnovers.

EDGE – EVEN.

Trends to watch

Kansas is 9-4 ATS in last 13 NCAAT games where they were a favorite between 7 and 12.5 points.

Richmond is 7-0-1 in last 8 NCAAT games as an underdog.

Prediction

Line – Kansas -11

Public are 61% on Kansas

The question is can Kansas be stopped? I think Richmond has the personnel to compete with Kansas. However, Richmond will have to make their shots against a stingy Kansas defense and also they have to hold their own on the glass. They let Kansas get opportunity after opportunity and wear down the Spiders. On the flip side, Kansas has to put Richmond away early. The more an underdog hangs around the more they start believing they can pull off the upset. 11 points is a lot to give up in a NCAAT game in the final rounds. I take Richmond to stay within the points, but Kansas to move on to the Regional Final.