Then there was four! It has come down to this, the final weekend of college basketball. “The Final Four.” Every year we say that the final four teams are different and every story is different, but this year takes the cake. The 2010-2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament provided a statistic that only been since twice before in the history of the tournament. There isn’t a single #1 seed to be found in the Final Four. Actually, in one semifinal you have the largest seeding between two teams when you add the two together. (Butler #8 seed vs. Virginia Commonwealth a #11 seed) So, it’s only fitting for the tournament that starting with a stat that had never been seen before (Michigan winning a NCAAT game without attempting a free throw in a 30 point win over Tennessee in Round 1) to showcase the Final Four teams that only 2 out of 5.9 million brackets that were filled out to pick correctly. How do you like those odds?
No one truly in their right state of mind would have guessed that these four schools would make up the Final Four. Why do I say that? Well, just look at the odds that VEGAS placed on these teams before the season began.
2010-2011 NCAA College Basketball Future Odds to Win the Championship
Kentucky 30-1 risk 100 to win 3000
Connecticut 75-1 risk 100 to win 7500
Butler 50-1 risk 100 to win 5000
Virginia Commonwealth 200-1 risk 100 to win 20,000
The odds can be found here if you would like to see for yourself:
http://www.sportsbooklists.com/blog/ncaa-basketball/2010-ncaa-basketball-previews-predictions-103010/
Unfortunately, those odds have now diminished drastically (see below) since there is a 25% chance that each team could bring home the hardware (1 in 4). VEGAS is not putting all the same odds on each team, understandably; however, I could definitely see any of the remaining four teams hoisting the trophy Monday night.
2010-2011 NCAA College Basketball Current Odds to Win the Championship
(According to BETED.com)
Kentucky +115
Connecticut +200
Butler +330
VCU +480
The fight pans out this way. In one corner, you have the two traditional powerhouses, Kentucky and Connecticut, with the winner moving on to the Championship Game, Monday night. The polar opposite sits in the other corner. Two Cinderellas, Butler and Virginia Commonwealth, who both will be playing with house money with nothing to lose, but everything to gain. Some say the key will be if the powerhouses can save enough in the tank from the backyard bash that will occur in the National Semifinals to finish off the run come Monday. However, on the flip-side, this may not be Butler’s first rodeo; however, both VCU and Butler have gone to great lengths to get to this point. There is intrigue no matter where you look that is for sure.
Kentucky Wildcats
What the Wildcats lack in experience they combat with athleticism and talent. Being able to take down both the overall #1 seed, Ohio State, and following that up by knocking off #2 seed UNC was incredible in the way that they were able to attack both off the dribble. The NBA would be proud of these ‘Cats. If they are able to keep the focus off of freshman Terrance Jones and Brandon Knight and continue to feed off of Josh Harrellson’s breakout performance, Kentucky will be cutting down the nets in Houston.
The freshman tandem is talented, but like people say, “The problem with freshman, is that they are freshman.” The stage of the Final Four can make you (see Carmelo and Syracuse) or break you (see The Fab 5 of Michigan).
Connecticut Huskies
The one man band that was Kemba Walker has turned into a fine tuned machine that just keeps plowing through the NCAA Tournament field. I truly believe that a team can ride the hot hand of one player and that attracts great play from their teammates, but all it takes for the opposition to cash in is the off night from that one true star. Luckily for the Huskies is that they have a two-time national championship coach to rely on in Jim Calhoun. Not a bad safety blanket at all.
Calhoun can work his magic on the sidelines that is for sure. What he cannot due from the sidelines is control how the game will be played. If the front court of Connecticut get into a physical half court game and the fouls begin to add up, Connecticut cannot counteract that with depth. We talk about Kentucky being young; half of the Connecticut roster is filled with freshman (7 of the 14). Throw in the 2 other sophomores and 64% of the team is underclassmen.
Butler Bulldogs
Butler can make a statement that none of the other teams in the Final Four can make, they have recently been to this point and beyond before. (They lost to Duke in the Title game last year) The key components to that team are for the most part still intact for the exception of Gordon Hayward. Butler has played against pretty much every style you can think off throughout the season so they will be battle tested and ready to show off for the crowd in Houston.
The other teams in the Final Four can claim that Butler has been the luckiest team this year and maybe even in the history of the NCAAT. Just look at this round by round analysis. Second round they win at the buzzer against Old Dominion. Third round after a series of craziness and legit foul calls they upset #1 seed Pittsburgh. The Sweet 16 game against Wisconsin, the Badgers at one point were 1 for their last field goal attempts in the second half. The final evidence is their latest round where they had to go into overtime to take out #2 seed Florida. No one said it has to be pretty, and the Bulldogs have proven that.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Butler might have been the luckiest, but the RAMS from Richmond, Virginia have been the mightiest. The 4th best team out of the CAA in the regular season has taken down a team from each of the following conferences: the ACC (Florida State in Sweet 16), Big East (Georgetown in 2nd Round, Big 12 (Kansas in Elite 8), Big Ten (Purdue in the 3rd Round) and PAC-10 (USC in the 1st Round). If you look at them these include all but 1 power conference, SEC. However, if Kentucky beats UCONN on Saturday and VCU beats Butler then VCU has a chance to take them all down and that would mean becoming the NCAA Champion. The RAMS have done it convincingly as well beating all of the above opponents by an average of 12 points a game including a 10 point win over #1 seed Kansas in San Antonio. VCU all season has lived and died by their press and the 3 ball. So far both have been running at full steam.
When the brackets were announced VCU was among the last 4 to an invite into the NCAAT. They were chosen ahead of the likes of Virginia Tech and Colorado. However, VCU has proven that at least in a one and done tournament they belonged among the best 68 teams in the nation. What VCU has been able to do so far in the tournament is unprecedented, but doesn’t the well run dry after a while? I mean this will be their 6th game of the NCAAT for them. Their longest winning streak of the season was 9 towards the end, and that only included 3 teams with a winning percentage over 50% for the entire year. If the RAMS are to keep the dream alive they will have to continue to control the tempo of the game and improve on a category they have been struggling with all tournament long, rebounding.
Your guess is as good as mine as to who wins it all this year. All the teams that are here are here for a reason. Some have been dominant, some have survived and advanced and some have defied logic. But that’s why they call it March Madness and come Monday, the true champion will once again rise from the chaos and can claim they are the best NCAA basketball team of the 2010-2011 College Basketball season.
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