#1 Duke vs. #5 Arizona - Analysis and Prediction

The Thursday nightcap starts off with #1 seed and defending NCAA champion, Duke Blue Devils against the #5 seed University of Arizona.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Duke prevailed over #16 Hampton (by 32) and #8 Michigan (almost clipped the Dukies before ending its road with a 73-71 loss). Arizona survived and advanced in the second and third round against Memphis and the Longhorns from Texas, respectively (both by less than 3).

Category 1 (see above)
Duke averages 76% from the free throw line and their opponents only connect on 61%. This is the biggest difference of all the Sweet 16 teams.
‘Zona converts at a rate of 74%. Opponents average a 67 free throw percentage.
EDGE – DUKE. Usually Duke holds a large advantage over the total number of FT attempts; however, both teams hold a +4 margin against their opponents. If Duke’s attempts are larger than Zona, I would bet that the Dukies will be moving on.

Category 2 (see above)
Duke rebounds the ball at a rate of 32 per game.
‘Zona is one of the few teams that get out rebounded at a margin of 28 to 30.
EDGE – Arizona’s negative rate on their return for rebounds scares me. DUKE it is.

Category 3 (see above)
Duke just like BYU can sometimes live and die by the 3 (look at the FSU vs. Duke game for evidence). Duke does average 39% from 3 while their opposition hits at 33%.
‘Zona connects at a +7% margin over their opponents; however, they only hit at a rate of 35%.
EDGE – ZONA. If Duke is hitting from behind the arc it could be lights out for Arizona. I am putting my trust in ‘Zona’s great defense from 3 point range (28%) to keep Duke under control here.

Category 4 (see above)
Duke’s field goal percentage is very impressive at 50% and even more so when you take into account that they average 58 attempts per game. Their defense could be better (holding opponents to 42%), but the offense isn’t too shabby.
‘Zona has an alarming statistic here. Their FG% is 43. Opposition however shoots at 49%. If you get out rebounded and have a worst FG% than your opponent I am not liking your chances.
EDGE - DUKE.

Category 5 (see above)
Duke is a little better than average when it comes to assist to turnover ratio = 1.05. What is impressive is that the Duke defense holds the opponents to a ratio of 0.72. That’s a 33% difference!
'Zona holds steady around the mason-dixon line (NCAA avg. = .93) Zona avg. (0.96). Same with their opponent (0.93 ratio).
EDGE - DUKE.

Trends to watch
Duke is 4-1 ATS last 5 in neutral site games.
Duke is 17-8 ATS after an ATS loss.
‘Zona is 5-2 ATS as a NCAAT underdog.
‘Zona is 1-5 ATS in last 6 against the ACC.

Prediction
Line – Duke – 8.5
Public is 82% on ARIZONA.
When it comes down to the statistics this game reminds me a lot of the BYU vs. Florida match-up. One team dominates the stats, but the other team didn’t just get here by sheer luck. I don’t like the line of 9 points, but I do love DUKE to win. Beware of the over on the points however, public is 90% on the over. Fade the public remember when their percentage is over 80%.