#8 Butler vs. #4 Wisconsin – Analysis and Prediction

The end of the Thursday night games features the 2010 NCAAT Finalist, #8 seed Butler Bulldogs vs. #4 seed Badgers from Wisconsin.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Butler reached the Sweet 16 by the closest of margins through their first two games. They were able to prevail over pesty #9 seed Old Dominion on a buzzer beater by the Bulldog’s best player, Matt Howard. In the third round, the mid-major from Indiana beat the only #1 seed that didn't make it to the round of 16, Pittsburgh by a score of 71-70. The Badgers rolled over Belmont and took a couple of punches from Kansas State, but was able to dispatch the Wildcats as well, 70-65.

Category 1 (see above)

Butler attempts 9 more free throws a game than Wisconsin (Butler 21, Wisconsin 12). Unfortunately, for Butler they only convert 69% of the time, while their opponents shoot 74%.

Wisconsin is very efficient from the line, 78%. But, as stated above they just don’t get there enough.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 2 (see above)

Butler and Wisconsin both hit the glass pretty evenly with both grabbing 30 (Butler) and 29 (Wisconsin), respectively. They also both allow their opponents the same number on the other end, 30 each a game.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 3 (see above)

Butler’s Sheldon Mack controls most of the outside shots for the Bulldogs, but don’t seem shocked when Howard, since he has moved positions, steps back behind the line. Overall, as a team, Butler connects on 37% and attempts 24 per game, while holding their opponents to 32%.

Wisconsin relies on a steady ball possession kind of offense, which doesn’t primarily revolve around the 3 point shot; however, they do attempt 21 a game and make 31% of them. Their opposition shoots at the same percentage.

EDGE – Slight edge to BUTLER. Shooting more than Wisconsin and at a better rate means success for the Bulldogs.

Category 4 (see above)

Butler and Wisconsin both shoot about the same percentage from the floor (Butler 43%, Wisconsin 40%) however, Wisconsin does excel on the defensive side where their opponents only average an impressive 37%. Butler allows 43%, the same at which they convert.

EDGE – WISCONSIN.

Category 5 (see above)

Butler holds an impressive 23% higher assist-to-turnover ratio than their opponents, 1.09 vs. .86. Also, they hold the opposition to under the NCAA average. But….

Wisconsin owns the assist-to-turnover ratio. The Badgers value the possession of the basketball like it’s their life. They average 1.86 assists per turnover (that’s DOUBLE the average). There defense allows a little over the average 0.96, but that is still good for a difference of 0.90! WOW! That’s how you win basketball games.

EDGE – WISCONSIN.

Trends to watch

Butler 13-3 ATS in last 16 neutral site games.

Wisconsin is 3-9 ATS in last 12 neutral site games where they were the favorite.

Prediction

Line – Wisconsin -4.5

Public is 51% on BUTLER.

It will be a slug-fest between these two teams in New Orleans. The total has already dropped more than 5 points going from 129 down to 124. However, the public is 69% on the OVER? Hmmm sounds like a trap to me. I would avoid. Now let’s pick the winner. Both teams match up well with each other so I expect the game to be nip and tuck the whole way. I think Wisconsin can get Howard into foul trouble and neutralize Butler on the inside. Wisconsin takes care of the basketball in route to a match-up of contrasting styles as they play Florida for a chance to be a part of the Final Four.