Favorite Time of Year

It is a saying a lot of us use, "This is favorite time of the year." Which do you hear more of, "I love this time of year" or "I hate this time of year". The point is neither here nor there, but indeed this is my favorite time of year.

What's not to love about the weather turning warmer and warmer as the days go by and the daylight staying with us longer and longer. Ahh, winter is beginning to fade and spring is on deck. Add in a little major league baseball (games have already started to be played, if you weren't aware), sprinkle in the start of the NASCAR season, and mix it all together with an explosion of taste called March Madness. I will even top it off with a delightful dessert, The Master's golf tournament waiting for you in just over a month's time. What's not to love.

Now let's get back to the main course. March Madness. All this month, college basketball will be at the top of the list for most sports fans. You have the start of the conference tournaments with the winners receiving automatic bids into the NCAA Tournament. For those that fall short, all they can do is wait and hope that their name is called on March 13th, Selection Sunday, or start calling your local pro shop for tee times. Get your pencil ready (pen is too dangerous) for when those brackets are first released.

One game that will impact the college basketball scene, I will be watching tonight #13 North Carolina at Florida State. I will be watching for a couple of reasons. 1. FSU is playing. 2. Tournament Implications. FSU is an interesting team to look at when talking about the "bubble" and seeding for the tournament. While, North Carolina is tied with Duke for first-place in the ACC Standings with the only remaining game left for them after FSU is against Duke in the Dean Dome on Saturday. (Duke plays Clemson after the FSU/UNC game and only game remaining is against you guessed it, UNC) Very interesting indeed.

What I don't understand about the UNC/FSU game is what the odds makers are thinking The opening line started at -1.5 for UNC (currently -2 for UNC). This is the same UNC team that destroyed FSU at the Dean Dome by 20 points! (believe, they were favored by 8 or 9 in that one). You might say, FSU did upset then ranked #1 Duke. Okay, let's look even further into that game.  FSU had a healthy and their BEST player, Chris Singleton, on the court not on the bench with a broken foot. Also, it was the first true road test for Duke. Look at these stats. Duke decided to throw all of its eggs into one basket and try to win the game from the 3 point line what happened? Duke shot 11 for 35 from 3. 35 threes attempted? Correct! In prespective they only had 62 total field goal attempts for the entire game. Quick math, 35/62 = .5645. Over 56% of their field goal attempts were from 3 point land. FSU is too long defensively, one of the tallest teams in the nation, for this stragety to work out, hence the struggle for the Pukies. (BTW, I hate Duke with a passion and always refer to them as Puke, just an FYI).

On the flip side, what was UNC's gameplan against the NOLES? They decided to let freshman point guard, Kendall Marshall, run the show and dribble drive into the lane and either pass to the open 3 point shooter or find the open man in the paint. The result? UNC had 23 assists compared to Puke only with 9. UNC was 8 for 20 from 3. (FSU's length gives everyone problems (1st in the nation in opponents field goal percentage) no matter the opponent; however, only a third of their field goal attempts where from the land of 3. (20/61 = .3278) See the difference.

Next you might say, Okay well UNC might be looking ahead to the final meeting with Puke on Saturday. Yes, but what about the thought of UNC playing against Puke in their home building with the chance to not only beat their arch-rival, but also take home the regular season ACC title as well. Sounds like a double dose of sweetness to me. Hence, I don't see Coach Roy Williams allowing UNC to look ahead, specially since FSU has a nack for upsetting top-tier teams in Tallahassee. (FSU has beaten UNC a number of times in Tally)

Call me crazy, call me doing some reverse voodoo, call it what you want. That's why you gotta love stats. Sping how you want. But of course, there is always a chance that the unthinkable might happen. If it does then 1.  I will be shocked, and 2. my birthday present will come 9 days early), but I just don't see UPSET CITY BABY tonight in Tallahassee. UNC beats FSU in the 8-12 point range and I see a low total with both teams struggling with field goal percentage. No homer bias here, just easy money when you put all the facts together.

Go NOLES!