#3 BYU vs. #2 Florida - Analysis and Predictions

The second Thursday game of the Sweet 16 pits the Mountain West Conference Regular Season Championship, #3 seed Brigham Young University against the #2 seed Florida Gators from the SEC.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:

"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

BYU made its way to the Sweet 16 by getting past Wofford by 8 and manhandling Gonzaga 89-67. The Gators advanced into the second weekend as a polar opposite to BYU. Florida beat their second round opponent by 28 and took out UCLA by 8 in the third round. Now you can wipe the slates clean as West Coast faces East Coast in this Sweet 16 Match-up.

1 (see above)
Cougars are 72% from the charity stripe and their opponents average 74
Gators shoot 67%, while the opposition averages 70%.
EDGE – BYU not only averages 5% better than the Gators, but also attempt 4 more free throws a game than the team from Gainesville. BYU gets the EDGE.

2 (see above)
Cougars only gather 31 boards a game, but keep their opponents to 33.
Gators crash the boards to a rate of 41 a game and manage opponents to only 29. Amazing.
EDGE – FLORIDA

3 (see above)
Cougars attempt a high number of 3s (mostly by POY-candidate Jimmer Fredette) and only connect on 33%. Averages out to be about 7 a game.
Gators have a dynamic back court duo who are the major reasons they shoot 41% from behind the arc, and once again only allow a very impressive 29%. Gators shoot 4 less 3s a game than BYU, but have a 8% better percentage.
EDGE – I love watching Jimmer, but “live and die by the 3 remember?” Time for my pick for POY to back his bags and end his collegiate career against the Gators. EDGE FLORIDA

4 (see above)
Cougars so if most of the 3s come from Jimmer, I have to be impressed by the rest of the BYU offense, who average 45% on overall field goal attempts.
Gators continue to dominate the stats. They average 50% from the floor in neutral site games.
EDGE – Closer but still taking the GATORS. A stat to keep in mind, both teams average over 50 FG attempts per game (BYU 59, UF 52). Very fast paced game. Look at the over if you are interested in betting the points.

5 (see above)
Cougars have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.15.
Gators obtain 1.06 assists per turnover.
EDGE - Both teams value the basketball as the statistics show. Difference is that BYU only allows a 0.91 ratio while Gators give up 1.07. Very tight, but I give it to BYU.

Trends to watch
Cougars are 1-5 ATS in last 6 NCAAT games as the underdog.
Cougars are 0-4 ATS in last 4 games after a WIN over 20 points.
Gators are 5-0 ATS in last 5 NCAAT games as a favorite.

Prediction
Line – FLORIDA -2.5
Public is 62% on FLORIDA.
You can probably see the direction I am headed in this one. Don’t hate the statistician, hate the stats is what I say. The Gators dominate all the statistics so hard for me to go against them (Hate to say it I know, die-hard NOLES fan here). Be sure to tune into this game since it will be the last game played by one of the best scorers ever in college basketball, Jimmer Fredette.