#3 Connecticut vs. #2 San Diego State - Analysis and Predictions

The first Thursday game of the Sweet 16 will have the Big East Tournament Champion, #3 seed Connecticut Huskies vs. the #2 seed San Diego State Aztecs, who won the Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:

"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

UCONN got to this point by beating Bucknell and Cincinnati rather handily (Bucknell by 29 and Cincy by 11). The #2 seed Aztecs, got to the round of 16 by beating Northern Colorado by 18 and escaping the #7 seed Temple Owls in Double OT 71-64 on Saturday night. Two different ways of getting here, but who will advance? Stats don’t lie so lets take a look.


Category 1(see above)

Huskies shoot 80% from the line, but also average 11 more attempts than their opponent.
Aztecs shoot 7% lower than their opponents in neutral site games (SDST 70% vs. OPP shooting 77%) and only average 2 more attempts than their opponents, not a good combination.

EDGE - HUSKIES

Category 2 (see above)

Huskies hold a +7 rebound average over their opponents (34 to 27)
Aztecs also hold a +7 rebound average as well (33 – 26)

EDGE – EVEN

Category 3 (see above)

Huskies shoot 31% from behind the arc and allow their opponents to shoot 36%
Aztecs are 35% from 3, and allow 33%.
EDGE – Both teams attempt the same number of 3s. So Edge goes to SD State.

Category 4 (see above)

Huskies and Aztecs almost have the exact same field goal percentage on offense and defense.
(UCONN – 46 and allow 40)
(SD ST – 46 and allow 39)
 EDGE – Both teams average close to the same amount of field goal attempts as well. Can’t get more EVEN on this one.

Category 5 (see above)

Huskies have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.03 and their defense records a 0.94 ratio
Aztecs hold a 1.09 and their defense allows a stingy 0.74 (0.74 is 0.19 lower than the NCAA Avg.)
EDGE – SD State.

Trends to watch
Huskies are 6-1 ATS in last 7 in NCAAT games.
Huskies are 18-5 ATS in last 23 Neutral site games.
Aztecs are 4-1-1 in last 6 Neutral site games as an underdog.
Aztecs are 3-7-1 in last 11 Thursday games.

Prediction
Line – UCONN -1
Public - 78% on UCONN
As the EDGES and VEGAS' odds truly suggest this one is going to come down to the wire. SD ST can expect a very similar game to what they experienced last weekend against the Owls. However, I believe in karma. All the media bashed the Big East for only having 2 teams advance to the Sweet 16. Now its time for the Big East to show how beastly they truly are. I hate to take a team when the public rides them hard (over 80%), but lucky for me the public is only 78% on UCONN.