#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Kentucky – Analysis and Prediction

The Friday nightcap kicks off with overall #1 seed The Ohio State University from the East Region facing against the #4 seed Kentucky Wildcats.

If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"

Ohio State has shown why it is the overall #1 seed in the NCAAT, at least to this point. The Buckeyes beat their second and third round opponents by scores of 75-46 and 99-68, respectively. In contrast, no one is really talking about the kids from Kentucky. They slipped by Princeton by 2 and beat West Virginia from the Big East by 7. Not all that impressive by any means, but they, just like Ohio State, are just one win away from the Elite 8.

Category 1 (see above)

OSU and Kentucky, just like most of the match-ups in the Sweet 16, shoot about the same percentage from the free throw line. The difference between the two in this case is that OSU attempts 10 more than the opposition. However, a crazy stat to see is that OSU opponents actually connect on 90% of their free throw attempts (9 of 10 on average per game.) Kentucky isn’t too bad itself sporting a +6 margin.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 2 (see above)

OSU and Kentucky average the same amount of rebounds per game.

EDGE – EVEN.

Category 3 (see above)

OSU has a very special talent nicknamed “Three-Bler”, real last name Diebler, who is the all-time leading 3 point shooter in the Big Ten. So it should come to no surprise that OSU connects on 45% from the land of 3. The better stat is that they hold their opponents to only 34%. Kentucky isn’t terrible at 35%, but just doesn’t compare to OSU. And both OSU and Kentucky shoot the same amount of 3s a game 15, which just goes to show you how good OSU is from 3.

EDGE – OSU.

Category 4 (see above)

So there must be a down side for OSU, right? Well, they actually hit on 49% overall. You don’t necessarily think of OSU being an offensive juggernaut, but they can do it all. Their defense carried them to holding LIU to only 45 total points. Their offense was rolling when they put up 99 on George Mason. Kentucky shoots at 44%, but so does their opponents, who average 41%.

 EDGE – OSU.

Category 5 (see above)

OSU is just a statistical giant. The assist-to-turnover category isn’t going to slow them down either. OSU has a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio and their defense only allows 0.85, a nice little 0.90 difference there. Kentucky holds a respectable +0.30 difference between their opponents; however, their offense only contributes to 1.18 of that.

EDGE – OSU.

Trends to watch

OSU is 9-2 ATS in last 11 after a straight up win of over 20 points.

OSU is 5-11 ATS in last 16 NCAAT games as a favorite.

KENTUCKY is 1-7 ATS in last 8 games after a straight up win.

KENTUCKY is 4-1 ATS in last 5 games as an underdog.

Prediction

Line – Ohio State -5.5

Public are 96% on OSU.

The only part of me that thinks that Kentucky has a chance in this game is the public. 96% of the public is on Ohio State. Las Vegas has got to be either loving or dreading that number. However, VEGAS has not really budged on the line keeping it around 6 points. I love that OSU has the edge in every category and would be alright if you were part of the 96% on OSU, but I just can’t do it. If the public was so smart then we would all be millionaires. I am taking the 6 points and riding KENTUCKY.