The final game on the Sweet 16 schedule I think will be the best game of the day and maybe even of the entire tournament. It includes #11 seed Virginia Commonwealth Rams against another double digit seed #10 Florida State. The winner of this match-up will move on to face the winner of the Kansas/Richmond game
If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"
Nobody had these two teams getting this far in the tournament. In fact, for VCU most analysis didn’t even believe they should have even gotten an invitation to play in the Big Dance. While this FSU team that had to play without its star player, Chris Singleton, for the final 6 games of the season, has had its ups and downs (see games against Auburn, Duke, and Maryland, for evidence) throughout the season, but has put it all together when it has mattered most. As Mr. Terrell Owens would say, “Get your popcorn ready!”
Category 1 (see above)
Neither of these teams is skilled at the charity stripe. FSU is only 65% and VCU is a little higher at 68%. This should keep the game close thought, but also may play a key part in the end of game situations.
EDGE – EVEN.
Category 2 (see above)
Rebounding is where FSU makes its money. FSU is one of the lengthiest teams in the NCAAT. FSU usually controls the glass against its competition with a +9 rebounding advantage (FSU 36, opp. 27). However, VCU is the opposite allowing the opposition to gain more rebounds than them (VCU 29, opp. 33).
EDGE – FSU.
Category 3 (see above)
Three Point shooting is where VCU has the advantage amongst these two teams. VCU converts on 40% of their 3 point shots and attempts 24/game. That’s a lot when you compare the other Sweet 16 teams. FSU is more likely to be called offensively challenged than an offensive juggernaut. However, they do hit on 35% of their 3 point shots, but attempt 5 fewer than VCU. The length of FSU has produced bad shooting nights for teams all season long with Notre Dame being the latest victim. I wouldn’t count on VCU making as many 3s as they have against their first 3 opponents; however, if they do we could see the RAMS move on.
EDGE – EVEN. VCU gets the edge offensively, FSU gets the edge defensively.
Category 4 (see above)
FSU was the best defensive team in the NCAA this year based on field goal percentage. They only allowed their opponents to shoot 33%, while offensively they were able to manage 45%. VCU shoots the ball at 44%, but so do their opponents. A key to this game will not only be if VCU can make shots from the outside, but also the tempo of the game. VCU on average attempts 9 more shots a game than FSU.
EDGE - FSU.
Category 5 (see above)
The most important statistical field for this game is right here. FSU is known to turn the ball over a lot and by a lot I mean over 20/game on some nights. There assist-to-turnover ratio is the worst of all Sweet 16 teams are 0.84. The bad side for FSU is that VCU implements a full court press for the majority of the game. If FSU can keep the turnovers down and put forth that lock down defense then no doubt about it FSU will be playing in the Elite 8. VCU on the other hand can handle the pressure as shown by their 1.55 assist-to-turnover ratio. Does the full court defense work? You bet it does and they have 3rd highest assist-to-turnover ratio on defense from all teams in the Sweet 16, 0.78. Only Duke (0.72) and San Diego State (0.74) are better; unfortunately for VCU both of those teams lost yesterday.
EDGE - VCU.
Trends to watch
FSU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.
VCU is 7-0 ATS in NCAAT games as an underdog.
Prediction
Line – FSU – 4.5
Public 59% on VCU.
This one is hard for me because I live in Richmond, Virginia and I went to VCU. However, I bleed Garnet and Gold. So, I will let the stats produce my winner. The two questions you have to ask are: Can FSU handle the ball against the VCU press and Can VCU shoot a high percentage against the defense and length of FSU? I like the chances of FSU not turning the ball over against the VCU press more than I think VCU can make shots against the length of FSU. I don’t like the 2-6 record FSU has as a favorite, but I think they buck that trend and will play against Kansas on Sunday with the victor heading to Houston for the Final Four.
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