The Friday Sweet 16 games start us off with the #2 seed out of the East, North Carolina, against the #11 seed Marquette Golden Eagles from the Big East.
If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"
North Carolina steam rolled over #15 seed Long Island University Friday, but got all it could handle in #7 Washington on Sunday winning by just 3. Marquette has been the shock of the East Region not only knocking off #6 seed Xavier, but also beating conference foe and #3 seed Syracuse to make it to the Sweet 16.
Category 1 (see above)
UNC and Marquette both shoot the same free throw percentage. However, the difference between the two schools is how many attempts each school gets per game. Marquette gets to the line 11 more times a game than their opponent.UNC has a +7 margin against theirs.
EDGE - GOLDEN EAGLES.
Category 2 (see above)
UNC is the best rebounding team in the Sweet 16 as far as the stats go. They average 39/game and also hold a nice +7 margin against the opposition.
Marquette is unfortunately at the other end of the spectrum. The Golden Eagles only average 26/game and allow the other team to gain 6 more rebounds than them. Not Good.
EDGE – UNC.
Category 3 (see above)
What I found surprising about both teams when it comes to 3 pointers is that both attempt less than their opponents. (UNC takes 15, opp. 21) (Marquette takes 15, opp. 20). However, UNC does convert at a higher rate than Marquette. (40% to 33%).
EDGE – UNC.
Category 4 (see above)
Both teams are average when it comes to shooting the rock. UNC averages 45%, while the Golden Eagles are 42% and they also how their opponents to similar percentages. (UNC’s opp. 42, Marquette’s opp. 44) I think the biggest key to tonight's game however lies in this statistic. UNC attempts 62 FG/game, Marquette only 56. If Marquette doesn’t slow down the UNC attack and limit the fast break baskets, then the Big East will only have one team remaining. If they are able to do that, then in the half court Marquette can play with UNC.
EDGE – EVEN.
Category 5 (see above)
UNC has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.03 (same as Marquette). If this becomes a track meet however, look for freshman point guard, Marshall, to hand out more than his fair share of assists.
EDGE – EVEN.
Trends to watch
UNC is 10-3 ATS in last 13 NCAAT games.
UNC is 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 after a straight up win in their previous game.
Marquette is 4-1 ATS in last 5 in neutral site games.
Prediction
Line – UNC -4.5
Public is 75% on UNC.
This game is going to come down to who controls the tempo. UNC will look for the up and down the floor, fast pace, score in the 80s type of game. Marquette needs to slow down the Tar Heels and make them work in the half court to have a shot at the upset. I think Marquette has been battle tested playing in the Big East, but I worry that UNC is too much run and gun for them. My play is UNC.
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