The second Friday game is one of the more intriguing games of the Sweet 16. It will be played in San Antonio, Texas, which not too far from where the Final Four will be held Houston. It displays #1 seed Kansas; a lot of people’s pick to win it all, versus Atlantic 10 Cinderella #12 seed Richmond.
If you need a reference to what the categories mean below, please read the previous post titled:
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"
"Keys to Winning in the NCAA Tournament"
Most people believe that this is the year Kansas lives up to its billing and gets to the Final Four and for good reason. They have had a rather easy road to get to this point, but did dispatch both Boston University and Illinois by an average of 16.5. In the other corner will be the first of two teams coming in from Richmond, Virginia, my hometown. The Spiders knocked out #3 seed Vanderbilt in the second round and coasted by fellow Cinderella and #13 seed Morehead State by 17. This is what March Madness brings us the classic battle between favorite and underdog, David and Goliath.
Category 1 (see above)
Kansas and Richmond shoot around the same percentage from the line (KU 69%, UR 67%), but the Jayhawks attempt 7 more FTs than their opponent (22 to 15) and 4 more than Richmond’s average (18).
EDGE – Kansas.
Category 2 (see above)
Kansas controls the glass when you compare them to their opponents. (KU 38/game, opp. 29/game)
Richmond is not going to out muscle Kansas on the boards, but they might have a chance to keep the numbers close. Spiders average 32 a game while allowing 31.
EDGE – KANSAS.
Category 3 (see above)
One reason I think Richmond might not be able to keep up Kansas tonight is this statistic right here. Both teams shoot exactly the same from 3 point range (37%) and attempt about the same number (KU 17, UR 18). Hard to pull off the upset if don’t perform above your competition.
EDGE – EVEN.
Category 4 (see above)
Kansas gets the shots that it wants to take, thus they average over 50% field goal percentage from the floor. KU not only can put the ball in the hole, but its defense isn’t too shabby either, holding opponents to just 39%. Richmond also holds their opponents to 39%, but is not as efficient as the Jayhawks. The Spiders hit on average 42% of their field goals.
EDGE - KANSAS
Category 5 (see above)
What do you expect from a team that’s defense holds opponents to fewer than 40% shooting, a pretty good assist-to-turnover ratio on the defensive side. Kansas’ defense has a ratio of 0.84, while the offense carries a 1.31 assist-to-turnover-ratio. Richmond will without a doubt be careful with the basketball and the stats seem to think they will hold their own in that category, sporting a 1.41 ratio. Richmond takes care of the ball, and Kansas forces turnovers.
EDGE – EVEN.
Trends to watch
Kansas is 9-4 ATS in last 13 NCAAT games where they were a favorite between 7 and 12.5 points.
Richmond is 7-0-1 in last 8 NCAAT games as an underdog.
Prediction
Line – Kansas -11
Public are 61% on Kansas
The question is can Kansas be stopped? I think Richmond has the personnel to compete with Kansas. However, Richmond will have to make their shots against a stingy Kansas defense and also they have to hold their own on the glass. They let Kansas get opportunity after opportunity and wear down the Spiders. On the flip side, Kansas has to put Richmond away early. The more an underdog hangs around the more they start believing they can pull off the upset. 11 points is a lot to give up in a NCAAT game in the final rounds. I take Richmond to stay within the points, but Kansas to move on to the Regional Final.
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